Report card after 2 years on the job

Metaculus forecast (See: prediction track record)	in May 2021	in May 2023
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?	Nov 16, 2051	October 2, 2031
Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People’s Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?	40%* (9/21)	50%
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?	22%	34%
Will there be a “World War Three” before 2050?	14%	23%
Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?	6%	5%
What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?	293T	307T
What will be the world population on December 31, 2050?	9.56B	9.62B
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?	25%	38%
By 2100, If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?	26%	28%

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